The presidential candidate of the ruling Democrats, Kamala Harris, has more voter support than her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in three key US federal states that could decisively influence the outcome of the upcoming elections, a new survey has shown.
According to a New York Times-Siena College poll conducted from August 5 to 9, with a margin of error of 4,2 to 4,8 percent, US Vice President Kamala Harris has the support of 50 percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while 46 percent for Trump, former head of state (2017-2021).
When it comes to registered voters, in Pennsylvania Harris is three percent ahead of Trump, in Michigan he is behind him by two percent, while in Wisconsin he has a five percent lead. It is particularly significant for the Democrats that the US vice president’s approval rating in Pennsylvania increased by 10 percent in the last month.
According to the New York Times, last week’s survey is the latest indication that there has been a shift in favor of the Democratic Party since 81-year-old US President Joe Biden withdrew from the race for the White House on July 21 and endorsed Kamala Harris.
Surveys conducted in the last year showed that Trump and Biden, who was then the expected presidential candidate of the Democrats, were either tied or that the Republican had a slight advantage.
Although the new race – between Kamala Harris (59) and Trump (78) – is just beginning, which means that changes in voter attitudes are possible, Democrats are now in a much better position than they were a month ago in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, states which in previous election cycles had a decisive influence on the outcome of the election.
Those three states from the so-called “rust belt” (Rust Belt) will also be crucial in the elections on November 5, since Kamala Harris, if she wins in each of them, would almost certainly become the first president of the USA.
Unlike other democratic countries, in the USA the candidate with the most votes at the national level does not necessarily win, but the one who “gathers” at least 270 of the 538 electors, temporary delegates who meet in December (electoral college) to formally elect the president. Since this act is a formality, the winner is known immediately after the election.
Each of the 50 federal states elects as many electors as it has members in the US Congress (the number of members in the House of Representatives plus two senators), while the District of Columbia, which is the official name for the capital city of Washington, provides three members of the Electoral College. A candidate who wins a state gets all of its electors, except for Maine and Nebraska.
Since the winner is already known in 43 federal states and in the District of Columbia, because the electorate is firmly in favor of either Kamala Harris or Trump, the outcome of the election is actually decided by the so-called “swing states” or “battleground states”. , in which sometimes the Democrats win, and other times the Republicans.
The number of “wavering states” varies from election to election, and in this year’s election there are only six, according to public opinion surveys. Along with the mentioned three states from the “rust belt” – Pennsylvania (19 electors), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10), the “battlegrounds” will also be Nevada (6), Arizona (11) and Georgia (16), in which they give Trump more chances.
If she managed to win all three “swing states” from the “rust belt”, which got its informal name because of the decline of the once powerful industrial sector after 1980, Kamala Harris would have 270 electors, which is enough to win the election ( states where her victory is certain bring 226 electors).
Trump became president in 2016 thanks to his victory in those three traditionally democratic states, in which he defeated the then Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by less than one percent. In Michigan, he had 0,23 percent (10.704 votes) more than Hillary Clinton, in Pennsylvania 0,72 percent (44.292), and in Wisconsin 0,77 percent (22.748).
In the 2020 election, Democrat Biden defeated Trump because he managed to win both Wisconsin (with a margin of 0,6 percent) and Michigan (2,8 percent) and Pennsylvania (1,2 percent).
Some observers also cite North Carolina as a “wavering state” in this year’s elections, where 16 electors are chosen, but there Trump has significantly better chances than Kamala Harris, the first woman of African-American and Asian origin who is a candidate for the highest office in the USA.
Last week’s New York Times and Siena College survey was conducted the week Harris picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Volz, a former high school teacher, with whom she immediately toured five “swing states,” including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, as her running mate.
However, the Democratic candidate cannot be completely satisfied with last week’s survey by the New York Times and Siena College, because it also showed that citizens have more confidence in Trump when it comes to managing the economy and immigration, which are two of the three key issues for voters in the upcoming elections. elections.
On the other hand, Harris has a 24 percent advantage over Trump when it comes to attitudes toward abortion. Voters also have more confidence in Harris than in Trump, who is facing criminal trials on charges of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election and rioting on January 6, 2021 in Washington.
The issue of immigration is key in Arizona, one of six “wavering states” that shares a long border with Mexico. That issue is important to voters, even though the number of border crossings has fallen from record highs in recent months.
Trump frequently attacks the US vice president’s immigration policy and her record in that area, and has promised the “biggest deportation operation” of immigrants in US history if she returns to the White House, according to the BBC.
In Arizona, there was also a heated debate on the issue of abortion, as Republicans in that state tried to reinstate an almost total ban on abortion, which is 160 years old. The issue of abortion has become polarizing across the US since 2022, when the Supreme Court overturned a historic ruling that gave women the constitutional right to an abortion.
In Michigan, the federal state with the largest share of Americans of Arab origin, an important issue is the attitude towards the war that Israel has been waging against the Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip since October. Since that ethnic group’s support for Biden was called into question because of his support for Israel, Harris began the campaign with a harsher tone toward that country than the current head of state. Trump calls on Israel to “quickly end” the military operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
In Nevada, Trump has an advantage partly because the economic recovery in that state after the corona virus pandemic is slower than in other parts of the USA. Nevada has the third highest unemployment rate in the US (5,1 percent), after California and the District of Columbia, and Trump promises to bring back lower taxes and deregulation.
Pennsylvania is the first in terms of inflation in the US, which will be a problem for Kamala Harris, whom Trump is trying to connect with the economic policies of the Biden administration.
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